Optimizing immunization services: A Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) of child immunization facilities in Pakistan.

INTRODUCTION: Child immunization, though cost-beneficial, experiences varying costs influenced by individual facility-level factors. A real-time solution is to optimize resources and enhance vaccination services through proper method to measure immunization facility efficiency using existing data. Additionally, examine the impact of COVID-19 on facility efficiency, with the primary goal of comprehensively assessing child immunization facility efficiency in Pakistan. METHODS: Utilizing survey data collected in four rounds from May 2018 to December 2020, the research focuses on doses administered and stock records for the preceding six months in each phase. In the initial stage, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is utilized to compute facility efficiency, employing two models with varied outputs while maintaining consistent inputs. Model 1 assesses doses administered, encompassing three outputs (pentavalent vaccine 1, 2, and 3). Meanwhile, Model 2, focuses on stock used featuring a single output (total doses used). The inputs considered in both models include stock availability, staff members, cold chain equipment, vaccine carriers, and vaccine sessions. The second stage involves the application of two competing regression specifications (Tobit and Simar-Wilson) to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and external factors on the efficiency of these facilities. RESULTS: In 12 districts across Punjab and Sindh, we assess 466 facilities in Model 1 and 455 in Model 2. Model 1 shows 59% efficiency, and Model 2 shows 70%, indicating excess stock. Stock of vaccines need to be reduced by from 36% to 43%. In the stage, COVID-19 period reduced efficiency in Model 1 by 10%, however, insignificant in Model 2. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed methodology, utilizing DEA, emerges as a valuable tool for immunization facilities seeking to improve resource utilization and overall efficiency. Model 1, focusing on doses administered indicates facilities low efficiency at average 59% and proves more pertinent for efficiency analysis as it directly correlates with the number of children vaccinated. The prevalent issue of overstocking across all facilities significantly impacts efficiency. This study underscores the critical importance of optimizing resources through the redistribution of excess stock with low efficiency.

COVID-19 in Pakistan: A national analysis of five pandemic waves.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic showed distinct waves where cases ebbed and flowed. While each country had slight, nuanced differences, lessons from each wave with country-specific details provides important lessons for prevention, understanding medical outcomes and the role of vaccines. This paper compares key characteristics from the five different COVID-19 waves in Pakistan. METHODS: Data was sourced from daily national situation reports (Sitreps) prepared by the National Emergency Operations Centre (NEOC) in Islamabad. We use specific criteria to define COVID-19 waves. The start of each COVID-19 wave is marked by the day of the lowest number of daily cases preceding a sustained increase, while the end is the day with the lowest number of cases following a 7-days decline, which should be lower than the 7 days following it. Key variables such as COVID-19 tests, cases, and deaths with their rates of change to the peak and then to the trough are used to draw descriptive comparisons. Additionally, a linear regression model estimates daily new COVID-19 deaths in Pakistan. RESULTS: Pakistan saw five distinct waves, each of which displayed the typical topology of a complete infectious disease epidemic. The time from wave-start to peak became progressively shorter, and from wave-peak to trough, progressively longer. Each wave appears to also be getting shorter, except for wave 4, which lasted longer than wave 3. A one percent increase in vaccinations decreased deaths by 0.38% (95% CI: -0.67, -0.08) in wave 5 and the association is statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Each wave displayed distinct characteristics that must be interpreted in the context of the level of response and the variant driving the epidemic. Key indicators suggest that COVID-19 preventive measures kept pace with the disease. Waves 1 and 2 were mainly about prevention and learning how to clinically manage patients. Vaccination started late during wave 3 and its impact on hospitalizations and deaths became visible in wave 5. The impact of highly virulent strains Alpha/B.1.1.7 and Delta/B.1.617.2 variants during wave 3 and milder but more infectious Omicron/B.1.1.529 during wave 5 are apparent.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and attitudes in Pakistan: a cross-sectional phone survey of major urban cities.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 mass vaccination is the only hopeful savior to curb the pandemic. Vaccine distribution to achieve herd immunity is hindered by hesitance and negative attitude of the public against COVID-19 vaccination. This study aims to evaluate the vaccine hesitancy and attitudes in major cities in Pakistan as well as their determinants. METHODS: A cross-sectional telephonic survey was conducted in June 2021 in major cities of Pakistan including Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, Peshawar, and Gilgit, from unvaccinated urban population aged 18 years or older. Random Digit Dialing through multi-stage stratified random sampling was used to ensure representation of each target city and socio-economic classes. Questionnaire collected information on socio-demographics, COVID-19-related experiences, risk perception of infection, and receptivity of COVID-19 vaccination. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify key determinants of vaccine hesitancy and acceptance. RESULTS: The prevalence of vaccinated population in this survey was 15%. Of the 2270 respondents, 65% respondents were willing to vaccinate, while only 19% were registered for vaccination. Factors significantly associated with vaccine willingness were older age (aOR: 6.48, 95% CI: 1.94-21.58), tertiary education (aOR: 2.02, 95% CI: 1.36, 3.01), being employed (aOR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.78), perceived risk of COVID-19 (aOR: 4.38, 95% CI: 2.70, 7.12), and higher compliance with standard operating procedures (aOR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.26, 2.35). The most common vaccine hesitancy reasons were 'no need' (n = 284, 36%) and concerns with 'vaccine safety and side effects' (n = 251, 31%), while most reported vaccine motivation reasons were 'health safety' (n = 1029, 70%) and 'to end the pandemic' (n = 357, 24%). CONCLUSIONS: Although our study found 35% hesitancy rate of COVID-19 vaccine, there were noticeable demographic differences that suggest tailored communication strategy to address concerns held by most hesitant subpopulation. Use of mobile vaccination facilities particularly for less mobile and disadvantaged, and implementation and evaluation of social mobilization strategy should be considered to increase overall COVID-19 vaccination acceptance and coverage.

Raising the contraceptive prevalence rate to 50% by 2025 in Pakistan: an analysis of number of users and service delivery channels.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan is the fifth most populous country in the world, with a population that is growing at 2.4% annually. Despite considerable political will, including a national commitment that was endorsed by the president to raise the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) to 50% by 2025, it has stagnated at around 30-35%. Much of the dialogue on raising CPR is hypothetical and revolves around percentage point change rather than an actual number of women that must be served. METHODS: The Demographic and Health Survey 2017-18 (DHS 2017-18) provides information about the channels through which users receive family planning (FP) services and disaggregates this information at the provincial level. Proportions of users from each of these channels were multiplied by the Pakistan Census-2017 populations to arrive at the number of users. These users were compared with the total FP users and the number of women that had used any FP service in the past 12 months. Linear estimations of population were applied to calculate population numbers in 2025. RESULTS: The national target of 50% CPR by 2025 translates to a population of 20.02 million users. Currently, 11.26 million married women of reproductive age (MWRA) use any method, 8.22 million use a modern method and 4.94 million received this service in the past 12 months. Of these, 2.7 million did so from social marketing outlets, 0.76 million from public sector outreach through lady health workers (LHWs), 0.55 million from private sector and 0.88 million from public sector facilities. However, arriving at the CPR target means expanding annual service delivery from 4.94 to 13.7 million users. Since social marketing and LHW outreach may have become saturated, only public and private health facilities are the likely channels for such an expansion. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate triangulation of the survey data with the census data as a simple policy analysis tool that can help decision-makers estimate the quantum of services they must provide. Such an analysis also allows an understanding of the utilization patterns of each of these channels. In Pakistan's context, underutilization of funds and existing facilities suggests that increased funding or more providers will likely not be helpful. The policy changes that will likely be most effective include adding outreach to support existing public and private sector facilities while ensuring that procurement of commodities is prioritized.

COVID-19 vaccination acceptance in underserved urban areas of Islamabad and Rawalpindi: results from a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Urban slums are home to a significant number of marginalized individuals and are often excluded from public services. This study explores the determinants of willingness and uptake of COVID-19 vaccines in urban slums in Pakistan. METHODS: The study uses a cross-sectional survey of 1760 respondents from five urban slums in twin cities of Rawalpindi and Islamabad carried out between June 16 and 26, 2021. Pairwise means comparison tests and multivariate logistic regressions were applied to check the associations of socio-demographic factors and COVID-19 related factors with willingness to get vaccinated and vaccination uptake. RESULTS: Only 6% of the sample was fully vaccinated while 16% were partially vaccinated at the time of survey. Willingness to receive vaccination was associated with higher education (aOR: 1.583, CI: 1.031, 2.431), being employed (aOR: 1.916, CI: 1.423, 2.580), prior infection in the family (but not self) (aOR: 1.646, CI: 1.032, 2.625), family vaccination (aOR: 3.065, CI: 2.326, 4.038), knowing of and living close to a vaccination center (aOR: 2.851, CI: 1.646, 4.939), and being worried about COVID-19 (aOR: 2.117, CI: 1.662, 2.695). Vaccine uptake was influenced by the same factors as willingness, except worriedness about COVID-19. Both willingness and vaccination were the lowest in the two informal settlements that are the furthest from public facilities. CONCLUSIONS: We found low lived experience with COVID-19 infection in urban slums, with moderate willingness to vaccinate and low vaccination uptake. Interventions that seek to vaccinate individuals against COVID-19 must account for urban poor settlement populations and overcome structural barriers such as distance from vaccination services, perhaps by bringing such services to these communities.

Community engagement to increase vaccine uptake: Quasi-experimental evidence from Islamabad and Rawalpindi, Pakistan.

Developing countries have been facing difficulties in reaching out to low-income and underserved communities for COVID-19 vaccination coverage. The rapidity of vaccine development caused a mistrust among certain subgroups of the population, and hence innovative approaches were taken to reach out to such populations. Using a sample of 1760 respondents in five low-income, informal localities of Islamabad and Rawalpindi, Pakistan, we evaluated a set of interventions involving community engagement by addressing demand and access barriers. We used multi-level mixed effects models to estimate average treatment effects across treatment areas. We found that our interventions increased COVID-19 vaccine willingness in two treatment areas that are furthest from city centers by 7.6% and 6.6% respectively, while vaccine uptake increased in one of the treatment areas by 17.1%, compared to the control area. Our results suggest that personalized information campaigns such as community mobilization help to increase COVID-19 vaccine willingness. Increasing uptake however, requires improving access to the vaccination services. Both information and access may be different for various communities and therefore a "one-size-fits-all" approach may need to be better localized. Such underserved and marginalized communities are better served if vaccination efforts are contextualized.

School closures help reduce the spread of COVID-19: A pre- and post-intervention analysis in Pakistan.

Closing schools to control COVID-19 transmission has been globally debated, with concerns about children's education and well-being, and also because of the varied effectiveness of the intervention in studies across the world. This paper aims to determine the effect of school closure policy on the incidence of COVID-19 in Pakistan. A Difference-in-Differences (DiD) analysis compared changes in COVID-19 incidence across cities that completely (Islamabad) and partially (Peshawar) closed schools during the second wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan. Effects of closing (November 2020) and reopening schools (February 2021) were assessed in Islamabad and Peshawar 10 and 20 days after policy implementation. In Islamabad, there was a greater decline in cases than in Peshawar when schools closed. After 10-days, the average reduction of daily COVID-19 incidence in Islamabad was lower by 89 cases (95% CI: -196, 18), due to complete school closure, with a relative reduction of 125 cases (95% CI: -191, -59) compared to Peshawar. Similarly, the relative increase in Islamabad after schools re-opened was 107 cases (95% CI: 46, 167) compared to Peshawar. After 20-days, the average daily COVID-19 incidence in both cities declined after school were closed (Islamabad: -81 [95% CI: -150, -13] versus Peshawar: -80 [95% CI: -148, -12]). COVID-19 incidence appeared to decline after schools reopened as well (Islamabad: -116 [95% CI: -230, -3] versus Peshawar: -30 [95% CI: -124, 63]). However, Peshawar's decline is not statistically significant. These results control for changes in testing as well as a daily time trend. The magnitude and speed of reduction in cases with a complete school closure, and a similar but reverse trend of increasing cases upon reopening, suggests that closing schools reduces COVID-19 transmission in communities. However, there are learning-loss and well-being costs for children and their parents.

Impact of school closures and reopening on COVID-19 caseload in 6 cities of Pakistan: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

Schools were closed all over Pakistan on November 26, 2020 to reduce community transmission of COVID-19 and reopened between January 18 and February 1, 2021. However, these closures were associated with significant economic and social costs, prompting a review of effectiveness of school closures to reduce the spread of COVID-19 infections in a developing country like Pakistan. A single-group interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) was used to measure the impact of school closures, as well as reopening schools, on daily new COVID-19 cases in 6 major cities across Pakistan: Lahore, Karachi, Islamabad, Quetta, Peshawar, and Muzaffarabad. However, any benefits were contingent on continued closure of schools, as cases bounced back once schools reopened. School closures are associated with a clear and statistically significant reduction in COVID-19 cases by 0.07 to 0.63 cases per 100,000 population, while reopening schools is associated with a statistically significant increase. Lahore is an exception to the effect of school closures, but it too saw an increase in COVID-19 cases after schools reopened in early 2021. We show that closing schools was a viable policy option, especially before vaccines became available. However, its social and economic costs must also be considered.